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Counterfactuals, superfactuals and the problematic relationship between business management and the past

University of London, g.maielli{at}qmul.ac.uk

This article analyses counterfactuals and superfactuals as means to develop scenarios, by focusing on the relationship between the design of heuristic tools for decision-making and the analysis of an organization's past. It therefore addresses the questions whether and to what extent the ex-post analysis of the past can help us to understand the present and take ex-ante strategic decisions. The Fiat case is analysed, by focusing on how the Italian carmaker responded to expected changes in the structure of the Italian and EC car markets from 1970 onwards. A counterfactual will be explored to hypothesize what might have happened, had the Fiat management developed a superfactual on the basis of the company's evolutionary patterns each time a change in the output mix was planned. Finally, the article puts forward a simple scenario for Fiat's future.

Key Words: car industry • evolutionalism • intangible specialization • path dependence • structural repertoires

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